I agree with most of this, especially that mobile devices will replace laptops as laptops have largely replaced desktop machines. After being the early leader in mobile, Apple will once again fail to hold a market, as it failed with desktop PCs. MS, on the other hand, will transition nicely to mobile devices and be a leading player in the market, especially among corporations. The dominant mobile OS, however, will be android. Like DOS in the 80s, it is the only current OS, as far as I know, not tied to hardware. Being backed by Google also helps, as they and MS will both be Gorillas by 2020.

Most people will still not be using speech recognition technology to enter text or data, but the use of the technology in specialized areas will continue to grow. I worked at Dragon Systems developing ASR technologies from 1992 until they folded on the last day of 2001. In 1992, they believed ASR would be the usual input method in 2000. In 2000, they pushed that back 2010. But the plain fact is that ASR is considerably more usable in domains where the vocabulary is restricted. Speech recognition technology is just not that accurate in the general speech domain.

Jeez, this is fun.

Globalization will continue.

The Euro will replace the Dollar as the reserve currency. (And this only 75 years after the bankers at the Reichsbank had to get their daily bread from the Allied Armies.)

The EU will be the main source of consumer protection from overly-restrictive software patent and copyright laws, and under-restrictive privacy laws, in the US. Forced to adhere to EU standards to participate in the larger EU markets, US corporations will adapt those standards here.

On the other hand, US internet and mobile networks, will fall significantly further behind European and Asian networks. The US will never be the main source of mobile development. Its share of RIA development will decline significantly. Google overseas will be much larger than Google domestic.

Regulating privacy, when everyone carries location-aware devices, will be a source of great debate here. In the end, a sensational stalking crime will force laws that restrict access to gps location on personal devices.

The EU will have a true military force that does not include the UK. NATO will be replaced by a treaty between the US, the EU and the UK.

The US will be out of Iraq and Afghanistan, and Korea and Germany. Marijuana will be legal nationally, and a major source of federal tax revenue. The US Navy will be smaller. The US military presence worldwide will likewise be reduced. The US will spend 25%, not the current 45%, of the total worldwide military budget. This, and not major cuts in domestic social programs, will be the choice for getting the national debt in hand. (Reducing spending overseas will prove more palatable than reductions at home.)

Gay marriage will be legal in New England, NY, California and perhaps a few more states on the west coast and in the upper Midwest, but not in the majority of states. Lindsay Graham (R – SC) will be the only openly gay US Senator. (Actually, isn’t he that already?)

This is too much fun, so I will quit here, but thanks for the suggestion.

Chip Moore

4. Gaming that involves exercise will be the primary way that the majority of people get their exercise.

I disagree. I think game-based exercise will replace the exercise video market, but too many people prefer to exercise outdoors or in team/group activities for it to be dominant in the next ten years. Do not underestimate the fanaticism of runners.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704039704574616401913653862.html

I like this list of the worst technology predictions:

“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys,” Sir William Preece, chief engineer at the British Post Office, 1878.

“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” H.M. Warner, Warner Bros., 1927.

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers,” Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

“Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night,” Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, 1946.

“The world potential market for copying machines is 5,000 at most,” IBM executives to the eventual founders of Xerox, 1959.

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home,” Ken Olsen, founder of mainframe-producer Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.

“No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer—640K ought to be enough for anybody,” Bill Gates, Microsoft, 1981.

“Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput,” Sir Alan Sugar, British entrepreneur, 2005.

1. Using improvements in media display systems (3D TVs, VR, spherical projection, or whatever) and possibly interactive inputs (future consoles)… big record publishers will find a way to package a home version of the concert stage event. And a step beyond packaged recordings… live pay-per-view media of this form. Combining this with a narrower demographic of big heavily sponsored artists/acts they’ll thrive as their own industry alongside point #2…

2. Artists with semi-large followings will embrace private digital distribution for the win. By working with lesser known artists of their liking and genre, they’ll form several pocket sub-cultures with dedicated followers (similar to the previous underground Hip-Hop movement) with their own fashion trends, etc.

3. A generation of gamer musicians inspired by Guitar Hero and licensed tracks from the previous generation bring back the sounds of classic rock with the additions of modern tech. Using the extreme patience they’ve learned from grinding RPGs, they become new masters of their instruments.

4. An experimental new type of music will be spawn from a device that can roughly translate neural thoughts of sounds into an audio stream.

5. Enya, Joe Satriani, and ?uestlove briefly form a super group and create the greatest song of all time.