This rounds out my trilogy of year end posts. Here is what I think will happen in the coming year. I would love to hear your thoughts on these predictions:

  1. Star Trek Online will be the only significant MMO launch in 2010. It will do well enough to make Atari and Cryptic plenty of money, but will not do nearly as well as World of Warcraft, so many people will consider it a failure. (Those people are dumb.)
  2. At least three of the major unreleased MMO projects will be cancelled. I have a guess about which two are most likely, but I’ll keep that to myself.  Qualifying projects include:
    • Guild Wars 2
    • Whatever Carbine is working on
    • That console MMO Turbine hasn’t said much about
    • Whatever Trion is working on
    • The Sci-Fi channel tie-in MMO that Trion has said they’re working on
    • Whatever Zenimax is working on that may or may not be Fallout
    • Whatever 38 Studios is working on
    • The Agency
    • Whatever Gazillion’s Gargantuan studio is working on
    • Star Wars: The Old Republic
    • The second MMO that CCP is working on down in Atlanta where all those White Wolf people are.  Hmm. What could it be?
    • Whatever Red 5 is working on
    • DC Online
    • That other MMO I know NCSoft is working on that is completely under the radar
    • Whatever Slipgate Ironworks is working on
    • The second MMO Blizzard has in the works
    • APB
    • Jumpgate: Evolution
  3. Project Natal and the Playstation Motion Controller will both come out.  Natal will do fairly well. Both controllers will allow some new kinds of games, but we won’t see any compelling examples of those games until 2011.
  4. Unemployment will peak and then start to fall.
  5. The compass+GPS augmented reality products will begin to shift to general location-awareness and away from their Augmented Reality roots. They will de-emphasize magic lens and start to emphasize aggregation of nearby content.
  6. No consumer-level see-through displays will come out in 2010. Significant progress toward them will be made, but nothing will be released.
  7. Neither Google nor Apple will release any kind of AR-focused hardware
  8. The use of “wave it in front of your webcam” type AR in advertising will peak with an AR-enhanced ad in the Superbowl.  The backlash will begin. By the end of the year the advertising world will have moved on.
  9. Apple will release its tablet and a new iPhone (faster and more storage) but won’t release anything that is specifically an AR product.
  10. Apple will address the pain caused by its app-store approval process, at least in part. I have no idea what their specific solution will be, but they aren’t going to let their developer community grow to hate them.
  11. Android will continue to pick up steam. By the end of the year Android will boast 50,000 applications.
  12. People will spend the entire year trying to find something really useful to do with Google Wave. They won’t succeed in 2010.
  13. Google will make Wave interoperate with email. This will make it useful as an email client if nothing else.

Ok, that’s the last of this kind of post for at least a year.  If only I could get back to posting regular stuff again. :)


One Response to “2010”

  1. Rachel H thought on :

    Positive predictions about STO? Careful, with talk like that, you’ll be labeled a dirty heratic. There is no place for hope in the MMO industry!

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