How did I do with my 2011 predictions?

A year ago I posted a list of predictions for 2011. Let’s see how I did:

  1. Wrong. Netflix did pick up more content. They are doing some interesting things with Arrested Development, for instance. However, I don’t think people will look back on all the pricing changes, Qwikster, and the general user annoyance as a year when Netflix “kicked ass”.
  2. Correct. 50 Mbit FiOS! Woot! We moved from Seattle to Kirkland into a house where the previous owners bullied Verizon into running the fiber. It’s completely awesome.
  3. Sort-of Correct. It’s not 60%, but Android is up to 43% market share. “Dizzying array” is the only way to describe the number of Android devices out there, though that’s not entirely a positive thing.
  4. Correct. Google and some of their partners announced a plan to improve the update situation. Hopefully that will work out.
  5. Correct. What new glasses? The Vuzix Star 1200s look cool, but $5k is a bit out of the consumer price range.
  6. Correct. This one was sort of a gimme since there’s no way to tell if this is really the start of anything. I’ve seem a bunch of Nissan Leafs around my neighborhood though.
  7. Wrong. I certainly haven’t heard of any such advance. Did I miss one?

4.5 out of 7 isn’t so bad. Some of my predictions were pretty soft-ball though, so I kind of cheated. :)

I think I’m going to skip writing my own 2012 predictions post this year. I would love to hear what you think is going to happen this year. Post them in the comments! (I’ll probably pick the best of them and put up a new post collecting them.)

Edit: @JZig points out that math is hard. 7 – 2.5 = 4.5

~Joe


2 Responses to “How did I do with my 2011 predictions?”

  1. Ole Thomsen Buus commented on :

    I predict (post-dict?) that there will be no predictions for 2012. You will have to try again yourself for 2013. Hurry up :)

  2. Joe said on :

    There were 2012 and 2013 predictions… I just started doing them privately in email so that nobody would ever write an article that “Joe Ludwig from Valve said X was going to happen”. That way I can predict stuff about games again. :)

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